In a significant victory for ranchers in South Dakota and nationwide, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced a new rule at the National Farmer's Union National Convention in Arizona, tightening the definition of what can be labeled "Product of the U.S.A."
Under the previous definition, animals raised outside the U.S. but sent here for processing could carry the "Product of the U.S.A." label. The final rule, issued on Monday, mandates that any beef labeled "Product of the U.S.A." must come from animals born, raised, slaughtered, and processed in the United States.
Tom Vilsack, the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, had strong words about the label's new requirements.Â
"We are now on record as being for the utilization of that label, but only when the animal is born, raised, slaughtered, and processed in the U.S. We were also basically saying, now you can't get by with slapping an American flag on the package unless the animal was born, raised, slaughtered, and processed in the U.S."
Vilsack highlighted that his department surveyed consumers, discovering a high value placed on the "Product of the U.S.A." label. He emphasized that the definition needed to align with consumers' expectations to honor that perception.
The new labeling rule, while voluntary, introduces a requirement that, by the end of next year, anyone using the label must prove that the animal from which the meat was harvested met the criteria of being born, raised, slaughtered, and processed in the U.S.
"Then we asked the question, do you place a value on that? I mean, in other words, are you willing to pay a nickel or two more if that is on the label? Well, absolutely. We want to help our farmers." Vilsack said. "So in order for that value proposition to be respected, in order for there to be fairness and honesty and proper representation in the marketplace, it's important to have rules like this."
It's important to note that this new labeling rule is not the same as mandatory country-of-origin labeling; it remains a voluntary initiative. However, the rule sets a standard that, by the end of the next year, those using the "Product of the U.S.A." label must prove that the animal was born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the U.S.A.Â
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Where in the world do your groceries come from?
The radiating public health and safety effect of COVID-19 laid bare vulnerabilities within global supply chains, the resilience of which remains under threat as some countries struggle to return to a state of normalcy, and inflation continues to affect manufacturing, shipping, and product costs adversely.
To illustrate how disruptions like these can most heavily impact U.S. food supplies and prices, FoodReady explored which countries the U.S. relies on for food imports using data from the Department of Agriculture.
In the U.S., the pandemic turned grocery shopping and dining habits on their heads in 2020, as restaurant visits ground to a halt and most of the country hunkered down at home. One immediate result of lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, and a general thinning of the national social landscape was that American consumers "made a run" on grocery stores—much as investors have made runs on banks during financial crises. Grocers and big-box outlets alike were caught off guard by the gargantuan demand for food, produce, beverages, and essentials like toilet paper.
Logistics and shipping companies, as well as grocery chains, spent the remainder of 2020 and well into 2021 adjusting their supply chains to adapt to the new habits of an American population trying to avoid infection. Consequently, fresh products, including meat, fish, dairy products, and eggs, were most heavily affected over this period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
At the same time, the virus' spread impacted food production at the source. Labor became harder to find and even more difficult to manage safely. By early 2022, the U.S. was emerging from its most virulent strain of COVID-19, with the Omicron variant pushing hospitalizations to a crisis point. What's more, Russia's invasion of Ukraine—known as the "breadbasket of the world"—in February of that year disrupted one of the world's most significant sources of grain and agricultural products.
While not one of the largest trading partners to the U.S., the destruction of crops and the widespread violence that severed export operations meant Ukraine produced fewer grains and fertilizer for the rest of the world, pushing grocery prices even higher for consumers around the world, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank.
Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. operate under a trade agreement that lowers barriers to importing and exporting various goods, including food and beverages. As a result, the U.S. has come to rely on its North American neighbors for a significant portion of its food imports.
In 2022, 60% of U.S. imports from Canada included meat and other animal products in addition to grains and seeds used for products like vegetable oil.
Over the last two decades, Mexico has become an increasingly important partner to the U.S. Now the source of more than $40 billion in imported foods, up from around $5 billion in 2000, Mexico overtook Canada as the U.S.'s biggest food supplier in the Western Hemisphere in 2015 and has since held that lead. We rely on our neighbors to the south for products like vegetables, fruits, snack foods, and beer and wine.
The European Union remains another valuable trading partner from which the U.S. imports a great deal of alcohol and spirits, as well as essential oils used to flavor foods.
The availability of imported food can sometimes be volatile with today's globalized supply chains—as in the case of avocados and, more recently, the popular sriracha hot sauce. And when the import of even one good dries up, especially a popular product, it can cause price shocks for consumers while supply chains adjust.
Some foods need to be imported because they only grow in certain regions. Other foods may be imported when distributors can get them more cheaply from another country than from the U.S.
Coffee is famously one of the products the U.S. consumes en masse—and one it relies on other countries to produce. Coffee beans grow best in climates surrounding the equator, which includes Central and South American countries. Brazil and Colombia were the top exporters of coffee to the U.S. in 2022, according to the USDA.
But the U.S. is a food-producing powerhouse of its own, even if what it produces looks different than that produced by other countries.
Although a high share of the products lining the produce aisles of U.S. grocers are imported, that's not the case for other parts of the grocery store. Sugars, sweeteners, and preserved fruits and vegetables are often imported pantry staples. However, dairy, grains, and meats are more frequently domestically produced.
The U.S. also exported 11 metric tons of processed foods to other countries in 2022, with Canada and Mexico being the biggest buyers. The overall export value that year exceeded $38 billion. Common U.S. exports include processed foods like beer, baked goods, condiments, dog and cat food, and fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.
Domestic processing facilities are most prominent in states like California, Texas, New York, and Florida, which serve as major logistics corridors and seaports, along with Pennsylvania, Illinois, and the Pacific Northwest. Meat and dairy product manufacturing make up the largest share of these types of facilities. When it comes to states' economic reliance on food processing businesses, Vermont, Alaska, Oregon, Maine, and Montana have the most facilities in proportion to their populations.
Story editing by Brian Budzynski. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn.
This story originally appeared on FoodReady and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.
Will grocery inflation cool in 2024? Here's what forecasts say
Forecasts
Updated
The vibes at the grocery store have felt off-kilter ever since Americans weathered the great toilet paper shortage of 2020. Inflation and its stealthy sidekick, shrinkflation, have become a painful part of the grocery shopping experience for the past four years.
It's a rude awakening after a decade of relatively stable food prices. The cost of groceries actually deflated, or decreased, from 2016-2017, according to Department of Agriculture data. When might we see that again, and could 2024 spell relief for shoppers worried about skyrocketing prices at the checkout counter?
FoodReady used data from the Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service to examine experts' predictions about inflation for food at home in 2024. The inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that serves as the foundation of the USDA's forecasting takes into account shrinkflation, the practice of charging the same price for less product.
An NPR report found that by summer 2022, a carton of Kleenex had 60 tissues in it, down from 65 several months prior. Chobani shrunk one of its single-serve yogurt products by almost a full ounce.
Experts say these changes to our grocery foods are unlikely to see a reversal. Smaller portions and higher prices will be the new normal from here on out, putting pressure on consumers to find additional income or get by with less at home.
The past few years of inflation aren't the worst in the modern era. The most significant bouts happened around the Great Inflation period of the 1970s and 1980s—when prices rose rapidly in response to years of wage gains and greater purchasing power post-WWII.
But forecasts suggest that the pain of this high-inflationary period at the supermarket could peter out quicker than it did in the late 20th century.
Grocery inflation is expected to ease even more in 2024
Updated
Overall decreases in the cost of grocery foods, as seen in 2016 and 2017, are rare, and the Federal Reserve considers inflation of around 2% or lower an acceptable rate. But the rate at which groceries increased in price in 2020 hit levels last seen 10 years prior, delivering a shock to consumers that worsened in 2022 as the inflation rate reached a nearly 50-year high.
Higher costs for labor and inputs are only partly to blame for the increased prices in recent years. The series of disruptions set off by the COVID-19 pandemic and a period of solid wage gains made consumers more willing to pay a premium—a situation corporations have been able to leverage to cover their expenses and reel in large profits.
Only retirement-age Americans will recall a year when consumers faced grocery prices that rose faster than in 2022. The year was 1974, and sellers hiked food prices higher than ever in a single year to boost the amount of money they could spend on processing and marketing foods.
Inflation is expected to slow across most aisles
Updated
Not all grocery food prices will likely stabilize similarly this year. For one, projections suggest consumers can look forward to lower prices for a carton of eggs.
Eggs were one of the most prominent food inflation complaints in 2023, even as their prices decreased throughout the year. The USDA predicts egg prices will continue to fall in 2024, estimating costs could dip about 12% below where they were in 2023.
On the other hand, the cost of items such as meat, nonalcoholic drinks, cooking oils, and sweet snacks and candy is expected to rise slightly over the year compared to 2023. Most other aisles, however, see middle estimates closer to 0%, meaning prices won't increase or decrease dramatically.
Story editing by Ashleigh Graf. Copy editing by Kristen Wegrzyn.
This story originally appeared on FoodReady and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.